Dr. Mark Mobius, the executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management who is known for his emerging markets expertise, is all over the financial newsscape these days. The following are a battery of links to all things Mobius:

Mobius Recommends S. African, Turkish Stocks, Palladium: Video
Bloomberg, September 4, 2008

Mobius Says Templeton ‘Sitting Tight’ on Thailand Stocks: Video
Bloomberg, September 4, 2008

“Templeton May Add Thai Stocks on Losses, Mobius Says (Update1)”
Susan Li, Chen Shiyin
Bloomberg, September 4, 2008

“Mobius picks South Africa as most attractive market”
Drazen Jorgic
Citywire (UK), September 3, 2008

“FUND VIEW-Templeton’s Mobius sees S.Africa growth”
Peter Apps
Reuters (Africa), September 2, 2008

“China and Russia Are Still Great Investments: Mobius”
CNBC, September 1, 2008

“INTERVIEW: Mobius says all to play for in Turkey”
David O’Byrne
Business New Europe (Germany), September 1, 2008

“UPDATE 1-Templeton’s Mobius likes Russia despite Georgia”
Dan Burns, Herbert Lash
Reuters, August 29, 2008

Marc Faber, known as “Dr. Doom” by the media, appeared on Bloomberg Television this morning from Bangkok and shared his short-term outlook for stocks and commodities. The editor of The Gloom Boom & Doom Report told Bloomberg viewers:

Global Economy:

For everyone, business is down. And in the U.S., if the statistics were compiled properly, the economy would be in recession also. The same in Europe. I travel extensively around the world. Compared to a year ago, all businesses are down.

Stocks:

I can see that stocks can rally because of psychological reasons. They’ve been oversold.

Crude Oil:

The oil price coming down is precisely a symptom of economic weakness. Not a symptom of strength.

Airlines:

Maybe there is a recovery going. I think one, in investing money, you should not look only at your personal experience. You can buy stocks of companies that are of poor quality. If they’re low enough, they can rebound. It’s like now the financial stocks. They have been hit very hard. Maybe they stabilize around this level and maybe they even rebound by 30 to 40 percent. I don’t think that they’re attractive from a longer-term perspective. I don’t think that stocks are attractive in real terms from a longer-term perspective. But I think that they can rebound somewhat.

U.S. Economy:

We have a tightening of global liquidity, and that tightening comes essentially from a diminishing U.S. trade and current account deficit. And I think that if the oil price continues to go down, as I think it’s very likely in the near-term for the next three to six months, as well as other commodities, then the trade and current account deficit of the U.S. could decline more than is perceived. And that would strengthen the dollar further, and in my opinion, if there is a contraction in consumption in the U.S., it is not a disaster for the U.S. because they don’t produce much anymore, but it would be very bad for the producing countries, the manufacturing centers of the world, that are mostly emerging economies.

Commodities:

The second half of 2008 of this year would not be favorable for commodity prices… As far as I’m concerned, we peaked out in commodity prices, and later on we will have to see whether it’s a longer-term peak or a short-term peak. But we don’t know yet.

You can view 9 minute 14 second Faber segment here.

Source:

Marc Faber Interview
Bloomberg, September 2, 2008

MarketWatch’s Jonathan Burton wrote about well-known money manager Jeremy Grantham back on August 29. Burton had this to say about the chairman of GMO LLC:

Jeremy Grantham is not given to false alarms. The chief investment strategist at GMO, the highly regarded Boston-based manager of institutional and high-net-worth accounts, makes buy and sell decisions with a combination of computerized technical analysis and old-fashioned spadework. But nowadays, his digging for attractively valued stocks is mostly hitting rocks, and that has Grantham deeply concerned.

“The fundamentals have turned out to be worse than I had thought,” Grantham said. “My advice would be, don’t take any risk.”

Burton explained what the famous investor was getting at:

What he means is that in this market, don’t be a hero; live to fight another day. Here’s why: Global economic growth is slowing under the weight of increasingly illiquid credit markets and inflationary pressures. Weaker growth slashes corporate earnings, and since stock prices are tied to earnings, the outlook for equities worldwide, as Grantham sees it, is poor to middling…

One of his biggest fears, he added in an interview, is that “the whole global economy will be weaker than the market expects for quite a considerable time.” How long? “I would guess at least two years of sustained disappointment.”

Did Grantham see any bright spots on the investment landscape? The MarketWatch reporter wrote:

Don’t hide under the mattress just yet. Grantham points out that many of the world’s strongest companies are based in the U.S., which could help the U.S. market’s relative performance. Moreover, he said, the weaker global picture will benefit the U.S. dollar, so the American market could turn out to be “a safe haven.”

Source:

“The four horsemen of the market”
Jonathan Burton
MarketWatch, August 29, 2008

Earlier today, legendary investors Marc Faber and Mark Mobius talked about Thailand as the Southeast Asian country wrestles with political instability. Thailand’s SET Index dropped to a 19-month low Tuesday after Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej declared a state of emergency following clashes between pro and anti-government demonstrators.

Marc Faber, the famous Swiss-born investor who resides in Thailand, appeared on Bloomberg Television this morning from Bangkok and talked about the political crisis, the economy, and the investment outlook for Thailand. The editor of The Gloom Boom & Doom Report said:

Thailand is essentially a political mess. The economy is not very dynamic, and it will continue to kind of move ahead slowly…

But at the same time, these people look for a strong stock market. I think that will be misplaced. At the same time, Thai shares are inexpensive. You can buy lots of Thai companies at a dividend yield of between 5 and 8 percent. So, that will give some support to the market.

Templeton Asset Management’s Mark Mobius also addressed the Thailand situation when he appeared on CNBC this morning. The emerging markets veteran said:

We are bullish on Thailand long-term. And we have been for quite some time because we think that these political disturbances sort of refresh the political climate and pushes for reform. So, we think after this is over, things will be good…

Based on our experience, from many, many years in Thailand, things will get better. There’s no question about that. You may have to wait for a while. But the interesting thing about the market is it hasn’t come down very much in the face of these demonstrations. So, I would like to see some further correction in the market before going back in.

(CNBC: How much of a correction?)

20, 30 percent like that.

You can view 9 minute 14 second Faber segment here.

You can view the 3 minute 31 second Mobius segment here.

Sources:

Marc Faber Interview
Bloomberg, September 2, 2008

Mark Mobius Interview
CNBC, September 2, 2008

Mark Mobius’ faith in emerging markets remains strong, despite growing political concerns over Pakistan and Russia. Charlotte Banks wrote on the website for the London-based publication Professional Adviser earlier today:

Despite an unstable stockmarket and rising political uncertainty, Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management, believes that Pakistan still offers long-term value…

“It is a big and important country which is full of very intelligent people so there is no reason why they shouldn’t do quite well,” he said.

Turning his attentions to another emerging market which has raised political concerns for investors, Russia, Mobius says he hasn’t been put off and he is not concerned about investing there.

“The problems are not going to scare us away from Russia - in the long term we think the country is going to be fine and will not be avoiding it in any way,” he said. “In the long term, the country is too important to ignore.”

Square of Europe, Moscow

Source:

“Mobius points to Pakistan as a long-term winner”
Charlotte Banks
Professional Adviser (UK), August 29, 2008

Jim Rogers appeared on CNBC early this morning and talked about a number of issues, including:

Possibility Of Recession

Recessions are like forest fires. Forest fires clean out the underbrush, they clean out things so that the forest can come out with a solid foundation and start with a new burst of growth. That’s what recessions are for. This is just like forest fires.

Keynesian-Type Stimulus Plan

Keynes has been pretty much disproven by most people, except maybe at CNBC…

Well, we will see what happens with this new stimulus package from Japan and from the United States. If you ask me, it’s the same mistake that America made in the seventies, they refused to let anybody fail, they kept propping things up with band-aids, and America had one of its worst decades its had in its 200 years of history. Likewise with the Japanese in the 1990s, they had their lost decade. I’m afraid we’re just extending things out, and we too, are going to have a lost decade.

U.S. Presidential Candidates

On Senator Barack Obama:

Well, he’s talking about spending a lot of money. Yes, I don’t consider that very good, going deeper into debt. The United States is already the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. I’m not sure that that’s going to solve anything.

On Senators Obama and McCain:

Neither one of these guys understand what’s going on. They don’t understand currency markets, economies, they don’t understand the world. You know, both of them will cause us more problems than they’re going to solve. If you happen to be friends with whoever wins, sure, you’re going to have a better time in the next four years. But the rest of us, the 300 million Americans, are all going to be worse off in the next four years. In fact, the world will be worse off.

Wall Street Bail Out

They’re bailing out Wall Street because all their friends are on Wall Street. When Ben Bernanke gets a phone call from the head of Lehman Brothers, he takes the call. But if some poor school teacher in Oklahoma calls Ben Bernanke, he doesn’t take the call. You know, he’s dealing with his friends on Wall Street, trying to save them, when in fact he should let them fail. And that would be a better solution. At least for 300 million Americans.

Letting Financial Institutions Fail

We’ve been having investment bankers go bankrupt for a few hundred years. Are you suddenly telling me that if investment banks on Wall Street go down the tubes, that the world’s going to come to an end? Listen now, a lot of 29-year-olds out there are driving Maseratis. Let them turn in their Maseratis. Let some of the rest of the people in America have a good time rather than people on Wall Street…

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Bailout

Why should the 300 million Americans take on the $6 trillion of debt that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac incurred? We didn’t have anything to do with it. It’s not our responsibility that a bunch of incompetents and crooks went out and ran up $6 trillion of debt. Why should we pay for it? It’s bad enough when the incompetents and crooks in Congress run up huge debts. But when people who aren’t even elected run up debts, why should Americans have to pay off that debt?

Inflation

Inflation’s going to get worse.

Commodities

I have not sold any commodities, and I’ve bought some more agriculture recently.

Emerging Markets

The ones that are in businesses which will not be affected by recession are going to do fine. Agriculture farmers around the world are finally going to be a lot better off. Maybe in ten years we’ll have 29-year-old farmers driving Maseratis instead of 29-year-old stockbrokers riding around in Maseratis. If you’re in the right areas, you’re going to do fine. But everybody’s going to be affected when large economies go into recession…

I’ve sold out of nearly all emerging markets because they were very over-exploited in the last two or three years. So I don’t really own shares in any emerging markets except of course China and Taiwan, which I still own. But other than that, I’m basically out of emerging markets around the world. Too many people around the world are flying around looking for hot emerging markets. That’s not a time to be investing in them.

Europe

Taxes are much too high in Europe. Nobody wants to invest in Europe with a high tax rate.

You can watch the entire 13 minute 3 second segment here.

Source:

Jim Rogers Interview
CNBC, August 29, 2008

Yesterday, Koh Gui Qing of Reuters India talked about the recent political upheaval in Pakistan and its effects on the domestic financial markets. Qing wrote:

Pakistan’s financial markets will increasingly miss the political stability under Pervez Musharraf as the country’s nascent but turbulent transformation to democracy from dictatorship keeps foreign investors away.

Some analysts said although Pakistan’s transformation into a democracy will get the thumbs-up from investors in the long run, the jostle for power may deter foreign investors in the near term and limit any market recovery…

Pakistan’s stock market is at a new two-year low and the rupee has weakened to a new record low.

Emerging markets veteran Mark Mobius offered his views on the situation in Pakistan to Reuters. According to Qing:

“The departure of Musharraf does not necessarily mean that stability and a guarantee of U.S. aid is out the window,” said Mark Mobius, executive chairman at Templeton Asset Management.

Mobius said Pakistan’s stock market has “probably already discounted the worst case scenario”.

Source:

“Pakistan’s rocky road to democracy deters investors”
Koh Gui Qing
Reuters (India), August 27, 2008

Bloomberg interviewed emerging markets veteran Mark Mobius, who shared his belief that Vietnamese stocks have tremendous investment potential. Bloomberg’s Van Nguyen wrote this morning:

Vietnam’s stock market offers investment opportunities after a 45 percent slump this year, said Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management Ltd.

“Vietnam’s stock market now is down, so there are more opportunities,” Mobius said in an interview in Ho Chi Minh City, where Templeton opened its Vietnam representative office today. “The market will go up and will be much more valuable in about three years.”

Mobius, who oversees about $40 billion in emerging-market equities, is increasing Templeton’s investments in Vietnam after it bought a 49 percent stake in the fund management unit of Joint-Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, known as Vietcombank Fund Management, earlier this year.

Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon), Vietnam

Nguyen noted the sectors Templeton’s Mobius is targeting. From the Bloomberg piece:

In Vietnam, Templeton will invest in retail banking, manufacturing and agriculture companies on Ho Chi Minh City’s stock exchange, Mobuis said. He expects the country’s economy to expand about 6 percent this year.

Source:

“Vietnam’s Stock Market Attractive for Investors, Mobius Says”
Van Nguyen
Bloomberg, August 22, 2008

Legendary stock investor Warren Buffett appeared on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” this morning. Reuters’ Jonathan Stempel and Euan Rocha covered the event and wrote:

Warren Buffett said the U.S. economy is unlikely to improve before 2009, and there was a “reasonable chance” that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shareholders would be wiped out though the companies themselves are too big to fail.

The “Oracle of Omaha” touched on a number of topics, including:

Credit Crisis

Referring to credit deterioration, Buffett said, “Right now the situation is still getting worse, and I would say that I don’t see any early end to that.”

U.S. Economy

He also said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke “does not have any magic wand” to bolster an economy facing weak growth and mounting inflation. “In my judgment it won’t be any better five months from now,” he said.

U.S. Stocks

Buffett said U.S. stocks are broadly “more attractive” than they were a year ago, adding that Berkshire has no currency bets against the U.S. dollar.

U.S. Mortgage Giants

Fannie and Freddie shares have plummeted as speculation grows about a government bailout of the companies, which own or guarantee almost one-half of U.S. mortgages. Shares of both have fallen more than 90 percent in the last year.

“They’re too big to fail,” Buffett said. “That doesn’t mean that the equity can’t get wiped out, and it almost has. In a practical sense, as institutions, they don’t have any net worth.”

Buffett forecast that “you’ll see some action fairly soon” to support the companies, but that he has not been approached to assist in any bailout. He said “nothing is going to happen” to investors in the companies’ insured mortgages or debt, but “the equity and preferred stock is another question.”

Transcripts of his “Squawk Box” appearance can be found here at CNBC’s “Warren Buffett Watch.”

Source:

“Buffett sees economy weak into ‘09”
Euan Rocha, Jonathan Stempel
Reuters, August 22, 2008

Well-known commodities investor Jim Rogers is undeterred by the recent selloff in hard assets. Bloomberg’s Rattaphol Onsanit wrote this morning:

Jim Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, said a tumble in commodities from records represented a temporary reverse in a long-term rally.

“I don’t see that it’s the end of the bull market,” the chairman of Rogers Holdings, said in an interview in Bangkok before speaking at an investor conference later today. “Until either a lot of supply comes on stream or the economy collapses, the bull market will continue,” he said.

The co-founder of the legendary Quantum Fund added:

“I am contemplating whether it’s time to get involved in base metals again,” Rogers, 65, said today. “I haven’t bought any for awhile.”

Onsanit pointed out other areas Rogers felt may have potential. He wrote:

Rogers, who moved to Singapore after selling his New York townhouse last year, said he was still optimistic about agricultural commodities and China’s economy, favoring the tourism, education, infrastructure, and power generation sectors.

Beijing Opera

George Iype of India’s CommodityOnline.com shed some more light on Jim Rogers’ latest investment outlook. Iype wrote earlier today:

The high oil prices and the pull back in some commodity prices on recession fears have not dampened Rogers’ enthusiasm for resources investments. “I am very bullish on metals and precious metals. Crude oil price will continue to rise, because there is a major demand-supply mismatch. Those who blame speculators for high oil prices do not know how the Futures market and oil market operate. Rogers is also upbeat on agricultural commodities. “I am bullish on opportunities in the agricultural commodities market. I am investing there now. The secular bull market in commodities will continue to go on now for some years,” he adds.

Sources:

“Jim Rogers Says Commodities Will Rebound After Drop (Update1)”
Rattaphol Onsanit
Bloomberg, August 21, 2008

“Why Jim Rogers is bullish on commodities”
George Iype
CommodityOnline (India), August 21, 2008