Back on September 2, Zoe Hughes of Private Equity Real Estate magazine reported that private international real estate investment firm Colony Capital, LLC, is looking to diversify into energy and infrastructure. Hughes wrote:

Colony Capital is considering long-term plays in the energy and infrastructure fields as part of a bid to diversify the private equity real estate firm’s brand, according to president Richard Saltzman.

In an exclusive interview published in the September issue of PERE magazine, Saltzman spoke about the firm’s strategic push, revealing energy and infrastructure were two spaces that could have “deep opportunities” for the firm in the future. He also spoke about Colony’s opportunistic investments, notably in the distressed arena.

Fukuoka Dome Baseball Stadium
Acquired by Colony Capital in 2004

Source:

“Colony gears up for diversification drive”
Zoe Hughes
Private Equity Real Estate, September 2, 2008

According to the Forbes website this morning, legendary real estate investor Tom Barrack may be looking to buy Italian property company Aedes. From the piece:

Shares in Italy’s Aedes rise as much as 6.1 percent after a report says that a deal to aid the property company, which last month admitted a ‘rocky financial position’, is close to being finalised.

Newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore says Colony Capital LLC Chairman Tom Barrack and Italian real estate magnate Vittorio Casale will meet in coming days, probably by Friday, to detail an offer for Aedes real estate and the offer could be presented around Sept. 8…

Source:

“Stocks News Europe”
Forbes, September 3, 2008

Yesterday, Bloomberg’s Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam reported that Pacific Investment Management Co., which was founded by legendary investor Bill Gross and is the biggest manager of bond funds, is actively seeking as much as $5 billion to purchase mortgage-backed debt, according to two investors with knowledge of the matter. Bhaktavatsalam wrote:

The Distressed Senior Credit Opportunities Fund will invest in “senior” and “super-senior” securities backed by commercial and residential mortgages, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the fund is private. Senior debt is first to be paid off in a default…

The new Pimco fund, dubbed Disco, will focus on commercial loans as well as residential debt that doesn’t carry explicit government guarantees or the implied backing of securities issued by companies such as Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, the investors said. It also will seek investments in securities backed by home-equity, credit-card and auto loans, they said, and can invest in debt secured by collateral outside the U.S.

The Disco fund has a 15-month investment period and a 5-year life. It will be jointly managed by Pimco’s credit teams in the U.S. and Europe, the investors said.

Bloomberg Bhaktavatsalam also noted in the piece:

Gross’s Total Return Fund advanced 9.4 percent in the past year to beat 99 percent of competing bond funds, according to data compiled by Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. The fund had 61 percent of its assets in mortgage securities as of June 30, up from 53 percent a year earlier.

Source:

“Pimco Seeks as Much as $5 Billion for Distressed Debt (Update1)”
Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam
Bloomberg, August 27, 2008

PIMCO’s Bill Gross appeared on CNBC yesterday and talked about the U.S. housing crisis. According to Gross, home prices will go down another 10 to 15 percent. He also discussed troubled American mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac:

CNBC: Bill, is your assumption that Fannie and Freddie will both have stocks priced at $0, and they will get some sort of a federal bailout?
GROSS: Well, I think so. At three and four dollars per share, respectively, at the moment, in effect, the market is valuing both of these companies at zero. I mean, these are perpetual options at these prices, you know, with three to four dollar prices that effectively use a strike price of zero for the common stock. So at the moment, that’s what the market is saying.

CNBC’s Erin Burnett asked the founder and chief investment officer at PIMCO what an investor needs to hear from the U.S. government to restore confidence in Fannie and Freddie. Gross replied:

They need to hear not only that they’re willing to stand behind Fannie and Freddie but that their money is going to do that. And, in terms of the amount, 15 to 20 billion per institution in the form of preference or preferred stock that hopefully will be at the same level of the existing preferred stock… Yes, we need 15 to 20 billion per institution coming in at the preferred level.

You can view the 7 minute 2 second CNBC segment here.

Source:

Bill Gross Interview
CNBC, August 20, 2008

It’s been quite some time since Investorazzi.com has gotten wind of something in the pipeline for Colony Capital’s Tom Barrack. However, last Friday Zoe Hughes wrote a piece for London-based Private Equity Real Estate about the famous real estate investor. According to Hughes:

Colony Capital has closed its distressed real estate debt fund on $900 million (€587 million) of commitments after spending just one month fundraising , PERE has learned…

PERE reported in April Los Angeles-based Colony was quietly lining up $1 billion in equity to take advantage of the current market dislocation. Founder and chairman Tom Barrack led efforts to raise the fund, which is expected to start investing in distressed property debt and operating companies with strong real estate components. The fundraise took around 30 days, sources told PERE.

In his latest “Chairman’s Corner” newsletter on Colony’s website, Barrack predicted commercial real estate would continue to suffer from the credit crisis, with commercial loan spreads continuing to widen and North American developers suffering a string of defaults. In housing, he forecast, the “real problems [were] just beginning and [there is] no clear solution in sight.”

He went on: “The best place to prospect for ‘long’ emerging opportunities is most likely at home. It contains all the ingredients of an intriguing opportunistic investment: volatility, lack of transparency, confusion, over-leverage abound, lack of homogeneity in products, long-term stability, and government intervention.”

Source:

“Colony closes debt fund on $900m”
Zoe Hughes
Private Equity Real Estate (UK), August 8, 2008

It’s here. Jeremy Grantham, chairman of GMO LLC of Boston and a well-known money manager whose clients have included U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney and 2004 presidential candidate John Kerry, has finally released his latest quarterly letter, along with a “special topic” letter to boot. The following are some notable excerpts:

U.S. Stock & Housing Markets

Where does this leave me? Believing that asset prices will come down to fair price and below by about 2010, a belief I have held since 1999. This means about a 10% to 15% decline in the S&P by then (to about 1100) and a similar percentage decline for EAFE; about another 10% decline in U.S. housing and perhaps a 40% decline in U.K. housing, which is likely to take quite a while longer than 2010 to bottom out. Critically, overruns on the downside for all asset prices after a bubble breaks are much more the rule than the exception!

Commodities

The prices of commodities are likely to crack short term (see first section of this letter), but this will be just a tease. In the next decades, the prices of all future raw materials will be priced as just what they are: irreplaceable. Oil, for example, will never again be priced on the marginal cost of pumping a marginal barrel from some giant Saudi oil field, as has been the practice for most of the last 100 years of oil production. Real cost is always replacement cost and oil, a precious feedstock for chemicals and fertilizers, simply cannot be replaced. Using marginal cost as a substitute was ignorant and conducive to wasteful consumption of scarce energy resources. It also enabled us to put our collective head in the sand and ignore the growing need for an enlightened long-term energy and climate policy.

Relatively quickly, in 100 years or so, we will run out of oil, underground water, and most non-fully-renewable resources. At current rates, we will do it very, very fast. A major complication now, though, is that we have been brainwashed by repetition to reject this whole idea as irretrievably pessimistic and defeatist, and just well… thoroughly un-American.

Summary & Recommendations

Due to a combination of spectacular mismanagement by the authorities that resulted in very excessive and dangerous speculation and very bad luck in the timing of commodity problems and over-rapid expansion of China, the fundamental global outlook is substantially worse than expected. These problems lower long-term asset values by a little and increase the chances of deeper overruns and perhaps a faster trip to the lows. Our advice until now was very simple: take as little risk as possible except for emerging markets. Now it is even simpler: take as little risk as possible.

The more complex issues, as always, involve timing. Both emerging markets and commodities (especially oil) have a creative tension between the negative and risky short term (1-2 years) and the attractive long-term (5-10 years) prospects. In the short term, slowing world economic growth combines with credit, currency, and inflation problems to dominate the outlook and offer poor prospects for emerging markets and commodities. Longer term, the reverse is true and they look like the assets to own. But for those who can keep some of their powder dry, there are likely to be much better investment opportunities in a year or two (or three) than we have seen for 20 years. Our motto should be:

Don’t be brave, run away.
Live to fight another day.

You can access both Grantham letters via the GMO site here.

Sources:

“Meltdown! The Global Competence Crisis”
GMO Quarterly Letter, July 2008
Jeremy Grantham
GMO, August, 2008

“Living Beyond Our Means: Entering the Age of Limitations”
Letters to the Investment Committee XV
Special Topic, July 2008
Jeremy Grantham
GMO, August, 2008

Yesterday, a piece appeared on The Economist (UK) website which showed that the American global investment management firm Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co., or GMO, made some terrific long-term calls regarding levels of returns from ten separate asset classes. Then again, what else would you expect when the firm is headed by legendary investor Jeremy Grantham? According to the well-known financial publication, Grantham and his cohorts are not so keen on the U.S. stock market and the housing markets of both the United States and United Kingdom. From the piece:

GMO has a very gloomy outlook for the American and British housing markets at the moment. By using the ratio of the median house price to the median family income, GMO reckons that prices in America need to fall by 17% instantly or stay flat for four years to return value. In Britain, prices need to fall by 38% or stay flat for seven years. And of course, there is no guarantee they will stay at fair value; in the mid-1990s, they dropped well below it.

More generally, Jeremy Grantham, GMO’s chairman, thinks that the equity bear market will continue for another couple of years, with the S&P 500 dropping by around 10-15% from here. But he warns that the chance of a meltdown—a drop well below fair value—has increased.

Source:

“The long and short of it”
The Economist (UK), August 3, 2008

Money managers from around the world gathered in Chicago last week for the CFA Institute’s annual investment seminar. Yesterday, the Chicago Tribune’s Gail MarksJarvis talked about two of the speakers- Jeremy Grantham and Marc Faber. The personal finance columnist wrote:

“I am officially scared,” GMO investment manager Jeremy Grantham told professionals from as far away as Abu Dhabi and Malaysia. “In 2000, we had a technology bubble. But this is massive, a massive credit crisis and a bubble in global housing, global equity and global land.”

Grantham, whose clients have included Vice President Dick Cheney and 2004 presidential candidate John Kerry, warned that the world is working its way through the “first truly global bubble.”

The British money manager shared his investment outlook with seminar participants. MarksJarvis wrote:

When asked by a money manager what he would buy now, Grantham said, “long mattresses” — jesting about the stereotypical nervous behavior of hoarding cash. He seriously suggested: “Put money into something incredibly safe, like a high-quality hedge fund.”

Grantham said rather than buying stocks for the long run now, he would only “short” them, or bet that they will decline in price. He sees “nothing interesting in quality corporate bonds,” and he has been shorting oil. “Commodities had a good run, but that’s over,” he said.

Although downtrodden mortgage-related bonds might be a good deal now because some are selling for 59 cents on the dollar, he said he wonders if the price will seem compelling if home prices fall another 20 percent or 25 percent.

He confessed to the group that “I bought my first gold last week, and I hate gold. It doesn’t pay a dividend. I would only do it if I was desperate.”

MarksJarvis noted:

Generally, when bubbles burst, the asset prices stay down for lengthy periods. Grantham isn’t expecting the stock market to hit its low until 2010.

The Tribune columnist also talked about Marc Faber, who publishes the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report. She quoted the Swiss-born investor as saying:

The Fed has created a bubble in everything — stocks in emerging market, real estate everywhere in the world, commodities, art. The only asset class that is down is the U.S. dollar…

It is quite likely that the current synchronized global economic boom and the universal, all-encompassing asset bubble will lead to a colossal bust.

MarksJarvis also noted:

And with commodity prices so inflated, he expects an “increase in international tensions” over resources.

Source:

“Even the pros may be stuffing the mattresses”
Gail MarksJarvis
Chicago Tribune, July 29, 2008

It appears the “King of Bonds” likes debt issued by U.S. mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Bloomberg’s Daniel Kruger wrote yesterday:

The fastest inflation in 17 years and a fourth straight quarter of U.S. profit declines are turning debt sold by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into the favorites of the world’s biggest bond investors.

Pacific Investment Management Co., T. Rowe Price Group Inc., RiverSource Institutional Advisors and U.S. Bancorp’s FAF Advisors, which oversee more than $1 trillion, say the government’s decision to stand behind the beleaguered U.S. housing finance companies and their yields compared with Treasuries make the bonds a buy. The Senate approved legislation on July 26 allowing the U.S. to inject capital into Fannie and Freddie. President George W. Bush plans to sign it into law.

“We like it,” said Bill Gross, who oversees the $128 billion Total Return Fund, the largest bond fund in the world, for Newport Beach, California-based Pimco. “This legislation has indicated to investors that Fannie and Freddie are not implicitly guaranteed, not explicitly guaranteed, but we’re close to that point.”

Source:

“Mortgage Debt Least of Bad Bets as Investing Sinks (Update2)”
Daniel Kruger
Bloomberg, July 28, 2009

Bloomberg caught up with Marc Faber, aka “Dr. Doom,” at an investment forum in Sydney earlier today. Reporter Shani Raja wrote:

Marc Faber, who told investors to bail out of U.S. stocks before 1987’s so-called Black Monday crash, said oil prices may fall to $100 a barrel as demand slows in a global economy at the “tail end” of its expansion.

Accelerating inflation and rising interest rates worldwide are likely to dent the value of commodities including oil, said Faber, who publishes the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, at an investment forum in Sydney today.

“Global liquidity is under some relative tightening, and that is unfavorable for all asset classes,” said Faber, 62. There will be “sharp corrections’” in commodities prices.

According to the Swiss-born investor, the global economy has experienced a synchronized boom since 2001. Dr. Faber noted:

In the history of capitalism this is most unusual. When it comes to an end it should affect all countries.

Bloomberg’s Raja pointed out global stock markets losses have amounted to nearly $12 trillion so far this year, while financial institutions have been hit with $447.6 billion in credit-related losses.

Dr. Faber told the forum that he prefers holding physical commodities rather than shares or futures, and that real estate in India and Cambodia were among his favored Asian investments, according to Raja.

Cambodian Beach

Such pessimism extends to the financial sector as well. According to India’s Moneycontrol.com (home of CNBC-TV18):

Marc Faber, Editor & Publisher, The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report said, “We had expanding credit growth in the period 2001-2007. We had this credit bubble built up after 1982.” So in other words, for 25 years now credit growth is slowing down and the fundamentals of the financial sector have worsened and they will stay unfavourable for a very long time, he added.

The peak earnings of finance companies ain’t going to come back. “I don’t think that Citigroup, or UBS or any other finance stock will go back to their peak level they had reached in 2007.”

Sources:

“Faber Says Oil May Decline as Global Growth Weakens (Update3)”
Shani Raja
Bloomberg, July 21, 2008

“See long-term negative cues for fin sector: Marc Faber”
Moneycontrol.com (India), July 21, 2008