William Hanley of the Financial Post (Canada) caught up with legendary investor Jim Rogers while he was in Canada this week. Despite the U.S. government’s growing interventions in the financial system, the CEO of Rogers Holdings is still skeptical of a positive outcome. Hanley wrote:
“I’m pessimistic because America is in recession and that’s having an effect on Europe and Asia,” he says, adding that the recession will last longer than most and be deeper than most because the U. S. government keeps making mistakes by bailing out one entity after another.
“The 29-year-olds on Wall Street and Bay Street have been driving Maseratis,” Rogers says. “That’s about to change. All these guys are going to have to learn to drive taxis.”
The former partner of George Soros in the Quantum Fund believes there will be quite a few brokers-turned-cabbies due to changes taking place on the financial landscape. Hanley wrote:
“The new financial centre could be in Shanghai or maybe in Singapore,” Rogers says. “I really don’t know where, but it’s shifting from New York and London toward Asia.”
Rogers shared his investment strategy with the Financial Post reporter. From the piece:
He continues to own the commodities themselves, not commodities stocks, because the current drop in natural-resource prices is just a correction that could last a quarter, a half or even a year…
He has been buying shares in some airlines, “a disaster area that’s close to a bottom,” and some beaten-up Chinese stocks… Meanwhile, he is monitoring auto stocks, which may become the next disaster area over the coming years…
Rogers is holding on to the Canadian dollars – “one of the soundest fundamental currencies” — he began buying years ago when he saw the commodities boom unfolding against a much-improved Canadian fiscal backdrop. “And I will be buying more along the line.” But recently he has been buying Swiss francs and yen.
He has been shorting the U. S. long bond in the belief that the growing mountain of U. S. debt and the necessity to print money to finance it means bonds have made a long-term top. “Bonds will be a terrible place to be for many years to come.”
And for years to come, Rogers says, water treatment, agriculture and Chinese tourism will be good places to be. China and India, especially, have huge water problems, food inventories are falling even as farmland is taken out of production and 1.3 billion Chinese are now able to travel freely in the world.
Those are the next big things. The best thing to do now in these clamorous markets, Rogers tells a reporter, might be to do nothing unless you have to. “You might just want to head to the beach.”

Sanya, China
“The Hawaii of Asia”
CEP News’ Christine Wong also got the chance to talk to the Singapore-based investor a few hours ahead of his scheduled speech to the Toronto Chartered Financial Accountants Society. She wrote yesterday:
“The American government is getting it wrong… and bailing out the wrong people.” He accused the U.S. lawmakers behind the bailout plan of trying to “bail out their banking friends.”
He predicted that in two years, when other problems crop up in the U.S. financial system, “the American government will be out of bullets.”
Rogers pronounced that “America is in a recession and the world is in a recession.”
Wong also noted that Rogers isn’t too impressed by the Republican and Democratic candidates for the White House. She wrote:
U.S. presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain were also in Rogers’s firing line.
“Neither one of them has a clue. Both would be disastrous” for the U.S. economic recovery, he said.
Sources:
“Contrarian becomes pessimist”
William Hanley
Financial Post (Canada), October 3, 2008
“Canada Will Feel U.S. Problems, But Won’t Suffer as Much, U.S. Investment Guru Says”
Christine Wong
CEP News (Canada), October 2, 2008
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